Thursday, May 19, 2005

Steve Ballmer's predictions from last Thursday

Softpedia news posted a brief about MSoft CEO S Ballmer's predictions for the future. It mentions that search tools will be an essential part of the "totally different" computing systems that we will see half a decade from now. Next it is mentioned that Google will meet its demise near this time. If search will be so important, then why would a company that thrives on the technology be ousted? This online news may just be paraphrasing with some mistakes.

I do see a sense in Ballmer's argument that , "the hottest company right now -- the one nobody thinks can do any wrong -- may just be a one-hit wonder" (Business Week). Though I think Google is too versatile to be marked temporary, it may be true that the hotspot search technology bubble will burst. Did the online businesses of only a few years ago pop because of fatal trends or wwere there sudden events that dramatically pulled the curtains shut? Now we have many online stores, but they are of a different flavor and are often not small scale.

Today's online markets are branded with daily evolving user demand, in the form of ebay-style direct user-buy-sell transactions--immitated by Amazon and B&N within their online stores. But online stores are often offshoots of larger scale enterprises. You will find products at MSN, but I would assert that this company makes its money in many other areas. Broader, nonauction types sustain themselves by large connected queried networks. Froogle will connect you to cached deals from among items priced all over, spanning a dozen online stores. Even specialty, say, computer supply CompUSA or office supply Staples products online divisions will be searched through Yahoo. Stores do not exist by themselves, but reach us through query chains and adspace.

Google has found a way of supporting itself without posting annoying ads: they post ads that aren't annoying, and lots of them. Not only that, but any internet site can make money off of Google AdWords, advertising without as much eye hassle, while silently supplying el Goog from behind. This company will very likely sustain itself into the future years, especially if other businesses make the money for it, and offering its services for free to keep its users.

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